Poll: Other People’s ChasePack

Well, my week off from ’08 reportage is long spent, and we’ve got a whole world with which to catch up, that of the Grand Old Party.

The Dem chasepack hovers behind three clear leaders, one of whom is particularly assured, particularly platitudinous, and already ‘playing not to lose’ like incumbents do. Barring an unprecedented flub or Al Gore, I expect no serious challenges to this “not crap, not crap, crap” triumvirate (not a bad nc/c ratio, really!)

Meanwhile, the other team is in a bit of a quagmire, so much so that eyes are turning to these as-yet-undeclared: the Law + Order/Die Hard 2 guy, an adulterous critic of adultery and the dove(-ish) Republican.

My question for you, reading public. Who’s gonna win the GOP nomination? And which candidate would you fear the most in a general election?

Mitt

McCain

Rudy

Brownback

Huckabee (!!!)

Thompson

Hagel

Gingrich

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7 Responses to “Poll: Other People’s ChasePack”

  1. Jordan Says:

    If Fred Thompson enters he’ll have damn good chances, so I think I fear him the most at this point. I still kind of respect McCain (he shakes things up), but I think the poor guy ain’t gonna get chosen after 8 years of bootlickin and tongue-biting. Poor old fella. Rudy G won’t be conservative enough, Mitrom won’t be mainstream (non-mormon) enough.

  2. Barry Says:

    Despite how “liberal” he is, it’s my impression that McCain has the most momentum right now.
    Rudy…bless his heart. Can’t a republican dress in drag these days? (this is the real reason why I can never run for the republican nomination)
    -Beej
    (p.s….and don’t forget Fred’s critical role in “Days of Thunder”)

  3. wobs Says:

    The big “mo” is actually running against McCain right now, with Giuliani opening up a double digits lead, despite being a drag queen and all.

    The nice thing about the Republican field right now is that it’s super-muddled and lacks a clear-cut “conservative” front-runner. Each of the front three has some major baggage, but they’re all hoovering up the big fundraisers, sucking the air out of campaigns like Huckabee’s, whose tone and style might resonate given more exposure. At any rate, this far out, it’s hard to tell how things will shake out in the primaries.

    However, I’d be scared as hell if Giuliani makes it to get the GOP nod. Conservatives have an odd way of looking past, erm… sins of the flesh if they’re paid proper attention to. Whether Giuliani’s many, many, many sins of the flesh are erased by his promises of appointing strict constructionists like Scalia remains to be seen; for now, however, he seems to be the belle, if you will, of the ball.

    On top of that, he has 9/11 street cred – people saw his performance that day (relative to Bush’s, even), and they liked what they saw. The reality of Giuliani’s leadership isn’t exactly what was portrayed on tv that day, of course. But that particular time has such an emotional resonance that I’m worried his “man-of-action” starpower will overwhelm the real flaws of leadership and morality that would seemingly be disastrous in the White House.

    I’ll do some more handicapping for y’all at the noodle.

  4. Wilbro Says:

    I vote McCain as “most feared GOP candidate in ’08” – with Giuliani a close second. Why do I fear them? ‘Cos both have the notoriety to actually keep the White House under Republican control, of course! McCain has been shrewd enough to keep things, well, fairly, “middle-of-the-road” and Giuliani is “America’s mayor,” so I think they’re both formidable adversaries in terms of heavy-hitter names out there on the political playing field. In response to Jordan’s nomination of Fred Thompson: I mean, yeah, he’s kind of a big name (he was in all those Jack Ryan/Tom Clancy movies), but I just don’t think he’ll make it to the big dance in the end…He’s been under the radar for far too long to have established himself amongst the field of competitors, I think. And with competitors like McCain and Giuliani, who’s really going to care about whether or not Thompson’s in the running or not? If worse came to worst, though, and one of these two actually made it to the W.H., I’d have to say Giuliani really scares me – maybe more than McCain.

  5. nuge Says:

    Most feared…Brownback period (although he won’t win, because the front burner issue will be the war and not conservative social issues), this dude is seriously scary, check his wikipedia page.

    Most likely to win, I’m going to say Gingrich or Hegel (if he runs) with the nod going to Gingrich. There will be too many issues that split the major republican party candidates this year. They don’t really have a candidate that fits the whole repub. bill. McCain & Guliani (R.G.’s personal issues will F*&^ him in the end) float too far left on some issues and will ultimately split the base.

    If the republican party wonks are smart (which I don’t think they necessarilly are, given they’ve been running on the terror platform for the past 8 years, and don’t seem intent on changing course) they will run a middle of the road candidate with a strong policy background to get away from the crises that will continue to plague the current administration. Most republs. are pissed about 2 things right now: the war, and the amount of governmental spending, hence, Hegel’s anti-war attitude and Gingrich’s policy “strengths” as in Contract for America. A Gingrich/Hegel, Hegel/Gingrich candidacy, could be very very scary, and I think a real threat to the Democrats, given the weak messaging we’ve been getting thus far from them.

  6. Dave3544 Says:

    I’m going with Mitt.

    He’s got those pretty, clean-cut, super-white Mormon legions to convince Middle America that he’s one of them.

    He has the most credibility on the conservative social issues. Once the Christian-right accepts that Mormons, though weird, are Christians, then there will be no doubt that he is their candidate. In fact, I will predict that Mitt will help mainstream Mormonism into the Christian-right. Heck, if Jews can be considered part of the Christian-right, then Mormons can too.

    He’s got more charm that all of the Republicans put together. In other words, he’s got the Bush factor. He’s the candidate you’d like to invite over to a BBQ. Only Obama and Edwards can compete with that, and Edwards might lose out because he was a trial attorney and Obama is black.

    Mitt can also appeal to the moderate suburbanites. He’ll say, “Hey, I was governor of Massachusetts, it’s still there, it’s still socially liberal, I didn’t blow it up or impose my right-wing values on it. In fact, I was governor when we passed universal health care.” This will go over well with the soccer-mom set.

    Let me dismiss the other candidates for a moment. Brownback will not get support from the money men. Thompson is an actor, a middling character-actor at that. Only Law and Order, Die Hard, and Hunt for red October fans want him to run, but only as a joke. McCain tied himself to the war, which doesn’t seem to be going well. Guiliani is creepy, he’ll blow himself out of the water before January. Gingrich could get the nomination, but not win the presidency. Republicans love him, Democrats loath him and moderates can’t have a good impression of him.

    Mitt scares me most of all because he can win and he seems to blow whichever way the wind happens to be going, which is a bad thing.

  7. dan Says:

    I think Hegel is waiting until the war gets worse and until the other candidates have shot themselves and each other in the foot(s). Possible political head-rolling in and around Torture Czar’s office could also make nice background wreckage for a return-to-sanity candidate. (This to stay off impeachment groundwell and general shitstorm of congressional inquiry.)

    I don’t think nice hair is going to matter as much this time around. Shit’s got too serious.

    Hegel has positioned himself contrary to the mainstream, just enough, and as a Nebraskan he need not kiss born again ass because Nebraska, as Jim Harrison said, is what America thinks it is. (Did I get that quote right?) Haybucking Swedes and Germans don’t kiss born again ass because silent suffering is going to make a comeback after all this inept, insular Baptist narcissism. People are gonna say “F the suburban Dallas country club blow-drier crowd.” “F the mega church corporate millionaire dopes who talk down to us while our kids come home without legs.” (They’re right.) Upright Nebraskans eat lame-0 evangelicals for breakfast just by sitting up straight.

    What I mean to say is that there’s a wing of the GOP that can’t stomach kissing born again ass anymore and they need a candidate who won’t have to.

    Gingrich is a know-it-all, and this country won’t elect the fat kid in the front row, no way no how, any more than this country would elect Bill Bradley or Al Gore circa 2000. Cheating on his wife while she was on chemo has a real flair about it and everything, but that pompous mother fucker will never be one of the guys.

    That said, it’s possible Hegel is just too boring. Jeb’s tightening his truss and shredding documents in FLA.


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